卓创资讯：糖价跌穿成本线 未来何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In mid-November, the sugar price in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but as new sugar supply increased, prices fell below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, averaging 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.86% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [2]. - The overall sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024/25 season is projected at 6.465 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase expected in the following season despite adverse weather conditions [4]. - The number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased by 22 year-on-year, impacting the supply dynamics [4]. Cost and Profitability - The theoretical sugar production cost remains high, with an average cost of 5624 yuan/ton against a selling price of 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories [6]. - The expected sugarcane purchase price is 510 yuan/ton, with a sugar production rate of 12.85%, indicating a challenging profitability environment for sugar producers [6]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [8]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380-5550 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply from local sugar factories and other regions [8].