供需边际博弈加剧 碳酸锂期价或现阶段性回调

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures slightly declining by 1.24% to 92,160.0 CNY/ton [1] - Supply side analysis shows a weekly production increase of 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons to 13,484 tons, while lithium salt lake production decreased by 145 tons to 3,090 tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal a divergence in expectations for December, with a slight reduction in production for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, indicating a need to monitor weekly inventory depletion for demand performance validation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the lithium carbonate market suggests intensified supply-demand dynamics due to the resumption of production by Ningde, with expectations for increased price volatility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the current price is facing short-term pressure around the 100,000 CNY/ton mark, with strong profit-taking motivation from bulls, necessitating caution against high-risk chasing [2] - Overall, the market is advised to be cautious of potential short-term price corrections amid active trading and increased capital divergence [2]