国信证券：货币政策相机抉择 净息差下降尾声

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in net interest margin (NIM) is expected to significantly slow down by 2026, suggesting that the current downtrend cycle for NIM may be nearing its end, contrasting sharply with the previous two years of uncertainty in the industry [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin Analysis - The current bottom line for major banks' NIM is estimated to be around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating that it is close to the lower limit [2]. - The necessity of maintaining a reasonable NIM is emphasized as a condition for sustaining economic growth and financial stability, considering factors like capital balance and risk pricing mechanisms [2]. - A model predicts that if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decreases by 10 basis points (bps) while deposit rates remain unchanged, the NIM is expected to decline by approximately 5 to 8 bps year-on-year in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy for 2026 is projected to be "reasonably ample and responsive," with an anticipated LPR decrease of about 10 bps and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 bps [4]. - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will likely maintain stability in monetary policy, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, unless economic recovery is hindered [4]. - A projected M2 growth rate of 7.0% to 8.0% indicates a basic currency gap of approximately 2.7 to 3.0 trillion yuan for 2026, with measures such as a 0.5% RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality stocks with improving NIM and attractive dividend yields, specifically highlighting Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also suggesting attention to Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank for potential excess returns [4]. - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank are also recommended for investment [4].