今世缘Q3 业绩双降：管理层坦诚 实际动销恢复到去年一季度难度比较大

Core Viewpoint - The management of the company believes that the terminal consumption level is unlikely to return to previous levels, indicating a new normal with a lower baseline [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, a significant decline of 26.78% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, down 48.69%, marking a notable increase in the decline compared to the first half of the year [2] - Cumulatively, for the first three quarters, revenue reached 8.882 billion yuan, down 10.66% year-on-year; net profit was 2.549 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.39%, ending the growth trend of both revenue and net profit in 2024 [2] - The core driver of the performance decline is the contraction in demand for high-end products, with revenue from "Special A+ category" products (priced above 300 yuan) falling to 5.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.97%, equating to a reduction of over 1 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][7] Market Pressure - The company's primary market in Jiangsu province saw a notable decline, with revenue of 7.955 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 12.4% year-on-year; key regions like Nanjing and Huai'an experienced declines exceeding 13% [3][8] - The provincial market's contraction is attributed to direct impacts from policy changes, particularly affecting high-end product sales due to reduced consumption scenarios in administrative and institutional sectors [3] - Despite efforts to expand into provincial markets, revenue from outside Jiangsu was only 804 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.06%, indicating challenges in achieving national penetration during industry adjustments [3][8] Strategic Response - In response to performance pressures, the management has adopted a strategy focused on "real value over superficial gains," emphasizing the importance of maintaining healthy channel inventory without artificially inflating sales figures [4][9] - The company plans to adjust its approach for the 2026 "opening red" campaign to ensure it aligns with sustainable inventory practices rather than pursuing unrealistic short-term metrics [9] - The company is transitioning from a phase of high capital expenditure related to capacity expansion, with expectations that capital spending will drop to maintenance levels post-2026, potentially improving future cash flow [10] - The long-term value of raw liquor inventory is viewed as a hidden asset, with expectations that as the quality improves over the next 5-10 years, it will convert into stable revenue and profit, preparing for the next industry upcycle [10]