中金：2026年民航业或真正进入向上周期 关注航空淡季投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, leading to a tighter market and higher passenger load factors, with an anticipated load factor of 87% [1] Supply - The industry will face tight effective supply in 2026 due to insufficient capacity and engine disruptions, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7% [2] - Boeing and Airbus are recovering production capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and ongoing global supply chain issues, particularly with engine quality, persist [2] - The growth rate of passenger fleets for Chinese airlines is projected to be around 2.1% year-on-year in 2026, with limited further improvement in aircraft utilization [2] Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of approximately 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations and limited room for load factor increases [3] - The potential demand growth is believed to be higher than 5%, aided by the gradual return of business travelers and reduced substitution effects from high-speed rail due to fare increases and longer air travel distances [3] Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are expected to increase moderately, with off-peak price increases potentially exceeding those during peak seasons due to tighter supply-demand dynamics [4] - The anticipated price growth will gradually approach 2019 levels, with seasonal fluctuations in price increases [4] Valuation and Recommendations - The company maintains its ratings, profit forecasts, and target prices for covered stocks, citing a solid foundation for the cycle due to low supply growth and improved cost conditions from falling oil prices [5] - Recommendations include China Eastern Airlines H/A, Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]