ATFX策略师：美元指数日线三大关键节点浮现，中期走势暗藏玄机！

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming release of the U.S. PCE data for September, which has been delayed due to the government shutdown, with nominal PCE expected to show a slight increase to 2.8% from the previous 2.7% and core PCE expected to remain stable at 2.9% [1][5] - The nominal PCE data is less stable due to the inclusion of volatile items like food and energy, making the core PCE data more significant for market analysis. Historical data shows core PCE has fluctuated between 2.615% and 2.989% since May 2024, indicating a stable trend [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has effectively maintained inflation stability over the past year and a half, with interest rates raised from 0.25% to 5.5% between March 2022 and July 2023, which has helped to avoid severe inflation issues [5][6] Group 2 - As core PCE hovers around 2.9%, the Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates, with two cuts totaling 50 basis points since September, and further cuts are anticipated in December [5][6] - The current inflation rate of 2.9% is near the upper limit of the moderate inflation range (2%-3%), suggesting that overly loose monetary policy could reignite high inflation, negatively impacting the U.S. dollar index [5][6] - From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar index has three key levels: 100.23 (previous high), 96.18 (recent low), and 100.37 (potential new high). A lack of support for the 100.37 level could confirm a longer-term downtrend if the index fails to rebound above it [7]