Wmax美债市场全景解析--宏观压力、波动博弈与配置转向

Core Viewpoint - The overall landscape of the US Treasury market in 2025 is characterized by high macro debt pressure, increased phase volatility, and leading institutions breaking through against the trend, shaped by the interplay of macro debt constraints and micro-strategic competition [2] Debt Market Overview - As of November 2025, the US outstanding sovereign debt reached $30.2 trillion, marking a 0.7% increase from the previous month and the first time surpassing the $30 trillion mark, doubling since 2018 [3] - The total national debt rose to $38.4 trillion, with limited buffer space remaining before the statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion [3] Underlying Logic of Debt Expansion - The long-term gap in government revenue and expenditure is identified as the core reason for the continuous accumulation of debt, significantly exacerbated by emergency borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in $4.3 trillion in financing through Treasury issuance in a single year [6] - Despite a reduction in the fiscal deficit to $1.78 trillion in FY2025 due to tariff revenues, the cost of debt servicing has surged to a historical high of $1.2 trillion, far exceeding the incremental revenue from tariffs of $300-400 billion [6] Market Volatility Triggers - The US Treasury market experienced significant turbulence in April and May 2025, with external shocks testing institutional research capabilities, notably triggered by the "Liberation Day Tariff" introduced by the Trump administration [7][10] - Concerns about trade friction weakening foreign demand for US Treasuries intensified during this period [7] Pimco's Strategic Decisions - During market panic, Pimco increased the frequency of its investment committee meetings from three times a week to daily, accurately identifying that foreign investors were not broadly selling US Treasuries but managing dollar asset exposure through hedging tools [11] - Pimco maintained its existing positions and increased holdings in 5-10 year Treasuries and mortgage-related assets during the market fluctuations, while holding a bearish stance on long-term bonds [11] Performance Metrics - In 2025, Pimco Income Fund, the largest actively managed bond fund globally, achieved a return rate of 10.4%, ranking in the top 3 among over 300 similar products, marking its best annual return in a decade [12] - The fund's total return also saw a 9.1% increase, significantly outperforming the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index's 7.2% [12] Institutional Allocation Trends - The US Treasury market is expected to achieve its best annual performance since 2020, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift to a looser monetary policy, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year [15] - Pimco has begun to reduce its exposure to US interest rates and is reallocating towards debt markets in Japan, Australia, and the UK, reflecting a globalized investment strategy under macro pressure [15]