5 deeper stress signals for Nifty investors even as RBI cuts rates on 'Goldilocks' phase

Economic Overview - The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) recent repo rate cut of 25 basis points to 5.25% signals a strong easing approach despite headline GDP growth exceeding 8% [1][19] - The RBI's actions, including a liquidity injection of Rs 1 lakh crore through open market bond purchases and a $5 billion dollar–rupee swap, indicate a need for economic support [1][19] Inflation and GDP Analysis - The Indian economy is experiencing rapid disinflation, with inflation at an unprecedented low, while real GDP growth is accelerating, creating a favorable economic environment [1][19] - Despite a reported Q3 growth of 8.2% year-on-year, the underlying strength appears uneven, with sequential growth stable at 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [6][19] - Nominal GDP growth has cooled to 8.7%, influenced by a GDP deflator that has dropped to 0.5%, suggesting that real growth may be overstated [7][19] External Economic Pressures - The rupee has declined nearly 5% this year, becoming the worst-performing currency in Asia, driven by a record merchandise trade deficit and weak exports due to tariffs [9][10] - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 1.5 lakh crore this year, indicating a lack of confidence in the market amid stalled trade negotiations [13][19] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express concern over the underlying health of the economy, questioning the necessity of such significant easing measures when headline growth appears robust [5][19] - Despite the current market challenges, major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predict a rebound in India's markets next year as earnings stabilize and policy support is expected to take effect [17][19]