【UNforex财经事件】政策转向信号强化 黄金在欧洲时段持续企稳

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, which has provided moderate support for precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are maintaining a steady upward trend below $4240, supported by the market's focus on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1]. - The dollar is under pressure, nearing its lowest point since late October, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1]. - The upcoming release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to influence gold prices significantly, with overall inflation anticipated to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% and core PCE remaining at 2.9% [2]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The labor market shows strong performance, with a 53% month-over-month decrease in planned layoffs and initial jobless claims dropping to 191,000, the lowest in over three years [1]. - Despite robust employment data, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve remain high, indicating that investors are more focused on inflation trends and policy direction rather than solely on employment figures [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified between $4245 and $4250, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $4277 to $4278, and further towards the $4300 mark [4]. - Support levels are noted at $4163 to $4164, with stronger structural support between $4100 and $4090, including the 4-hour 200 EMA and an upward trend line [4]. - The market is advised to observe breakout directions around these levels rather than chasing high prices before the PCE data release [4].