IC外汇平台：美国周期性强劲，结构性疲软

Economic Growth and Forecasts - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain relatively robust growth despite signs of a cooling labor market, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being revised upward to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively, from previous estimates of 1.6% and 1.4% [1] - Economic growth is projected to stabilize at a lower trend rate of 1.7% by 2027, constrained by demographic factors affecting production capacity [1] Inflation Trends - Inflation trends are largely in line with previous forecasts, with overall inflation predictions remaining unchanged at 2.8% for 2025, 2.5% for 2026 (previously 2.6%), and 2.4% for 2027 [1] - Core inflation rate forecasts are maintained at 3.0% for 2025, 2.8% for 2026, and 2.6% for 2027 [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, March, and June, with a terminal rate of 3.00-3.25% expected to be maintained throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 [3] - The outlook for risks is balanced, with potential for a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle if private consumption slows significantly, while ongoing fiscal easing may keep rates higher than anticipated [3]