2025年中央经济工作会议前瞻：预计明年政策基调更加积极有力

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is crucial for setting the direction of China's macroeconomic policies, particularly as it marks the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Economic Goals and Policy Directions - The conference will focus on three main lines: stabilizing growth, promoting transformation, and preventing risks, addressing structural contradictions in the economy and fostering new productive forces [2] - The macroeconomic targets for 2026 include a GDP growth rate of around 5%, creation of over 12 million urban jobs, controlling the unemployment rate below 5.5%, and keeping CPI growth within 3% [2] - The conference aims to ensure that residents' disposable income growth aligns with GDP growth, enhancing consumption capacity while effectively managing risks in key areas such as real estate and local debt [2] Group 2: Policy Framework - The overall policy tone will emphasize stable macro policies, active micro policies, and social policies that provide a safety net, with a focus on a more proactive macro policy mix [3] - Fiscal policy will aim to enhance quality and efficiency, with an expected deficit rate maintained at around 4%, and the issuance of special bonds to support key areas [5] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and precise, with potential for interest rate cuts and targeted lending to lower financing costs [3][6] Group 3: Consumption and Domestic Demand - The conference will prioritize boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing the role of domestic circulation in economic growth [8] - The automotive industry, as a pillar of the national economy, will play a significant role in driving economic structure adjustments through its transition towards intelligence and sustainability [8] Group 4: Technological Innovation and Industry Development - The conference will highlight the importance of technology and industry, aiming to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [9] - Policies will promote the intelligent and green transformation of traditional industries and accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters [9]