特朗普太多“鬼点子”埋雷，下一任美联储主席不好干！

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve chair under President Trump faces significant challenges, including navigating a cautious financial market, complex economic indicators, and internal conflicts within the central bank, all while responding to a president advocating for policies that may exacerbate inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Inflation - Trump proposes a "tariff dividend" of $2,000 cash checks for families earning less than $100,000, reminiscent of Biden's pandemic recovery checks, raising concerns about its potential impact on inflation [1][2]. - The current inflation rate has significantly decreased from its peak but remains high, leading to skepticism about the effectiveness of issuing larger checks in the current economic climate [1][2]. - Trump's insistence on tariffs has already increased prices on various goods, and upcoming trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico may further complicate the inflation landscape [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The next Fed chair must balance the need for lower interest rates to support a weak labor market while preventing inflation from rising to dangerous levels, a task complicated by Trump's aggressive push for rate cuts [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making body, consisting of 19 members, faces internal divisions, making consensus on interest rate policies challenging [5]. - The credibility of the next Fed chair in combating inflation will be crucial to avoid investor concerns about rising long-term yields [5]. Group 3: Candidates and Their Positions - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for Fed chair, is seen as closely aligned with Trump, raising concerns about the potential erosion of the Fed's political independence [2][3]. - Another candidate, Fed Governor Waller, is viewed more favorably by Wall Street investors but has a less intimate relationship with Trump, complicating his ability to navigate conflicting demands [3][4]. - The next chair must provide convincing arguments to the rate-setting committee to justify any significant rate cuts, especially in light of the current economic conditions [4][5]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Mohamed El-Erian suggests that advancements in artificial intelligence could lead to significant productivity gains, allowing for faster economic growth without triggering inflation [6]. - He advocates for a broader analysis of economic factors beyond just demand for goods and services, which could lead to lower interest rates over time [6][7]. - El-Erian warns that the path to rate cuts will be challenging in the short term, potentially leading to dissatisfaction from Trump [7].