“特朗普乌云”压顶之下，美联储降息恐成“哑炮”？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are preparing to lower interest rates again next week, but the economic benefits may take longer to materialize and could be undermined by factors beyond monetary policy control [1] - Industries sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, may only see limited benefits from lower borrowing costs due to historically high home prices and concerns about the labor market [1] - Other sectors, like manufacturing, are delaying investments due to the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, which low interest rates cannot alleviate [1] Group 2 - The typical time for the Federal Reserve's policies to impact consumers and businesses may extend up to 18 months, and this may not apply in the current economic context [2] - The chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. noted that businesses are pausing hiring not solely due to high interest rates, but also because of uncertainties related to tariffs and other economic policy changes [2] - Wealthier households are benefiting more from the current interest rate cuts compared to low-income groups, as they have seen a significant rebound in the stock market, leading to increased retirement savings and consumer willingness [2] Group 3 - The clarity of interest rates and tariff policies is crucial for boosting business confidence and encouraging investment among clients [3] - U.S. manufacturers have been experiencing a downturn, with factory activity contracting for nine consecutive months, despite favorable tax provisions and lower borrowing costs [3] - Capital expenditures are essentially stagnant, as business leaders express that low interest rates alone will not influence their operations without a degree of certainty regarding tariffs [3]