下周降息板上钉钉？美银Hartnett警告：美联储若鸽派降息，可能终结美股圣诞反弹行情

Core Viewpoint - The cautious economic outlook from the Federal Reserve may threaten the year-end stock market rally, with the S&P 500 index currently only about 0.5% away from its historical high. If the Fed signals an overly dovish stance in the upcoming meeting, it could imply a more significant economic slowdown than expected, leading to market sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, have shifted their expectations towards a rate cut in December, influenced by weak economic data and dovish statements from key Fed officials [2]. - The swap market indicates that investor bets on a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 have surged from 60% a month ago to over 90%, with traders fully pricing in three rate cuts by the Fed before September 2026 [1][2]. - Morgan Stanley now anticipates rate cuts in January and April, adjusting their previous forecast, while Bank of America suggests potential rate cuts in June and July of next year [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - A Bloomberg survey of 41 economists indicates that a split vote is expected in the upcoming Fed meeting, reflecting increasing tensions within the Federal Open Market Committee [4]. - Several regional Fed presidents, including Jeff Schmid and Alberto Musalem, are anticipated to vote against the proposed rate cut due to concerns over inflation [4][5]. - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials stems from differing assessments of the balance between price stability and full employment, with some expressing worries about persistent inflation driven by tariffs [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Labor Market Signals - Recent economic data has provided mixed signals, with large companies like Verizon and Amazon announcing significant layoffs, yet weekly unemployment claims remain low [6]. - The Labor Department has not released updated inflation reports due to a government shutdown, with the last available data showing a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for September [6]. - Most economists view a significant weakening of the labor market as the primary challenge for policymakers, with only 18% considering more severe inflation as a greater risk [7].