大类资产定价的 K 型背离--“财政风险溢价”的后续演变

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a dangerous and divided phase driven by "fiscal dominance," where traditional macroeconomic logic has failed, leading to a significant divergence in asset pricing, particularly between U.S. stocks and gold, which are now tools for hedging fiat currency credit risk [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2023, global asset pricing has entered a new "fiscal dominance" phase, with traditional macroeconomic transmission mechanisms largely ineffective [2]. - The market exhibits a pronounced "K-shaped divergence," where U.S. stocks continue to rise despite declining employment signals, while gold reaches new highs in a high real interest rate environment [2][3]. - The core risk stems not from the economic cycle itself but from hidden fiscal pressures, with a current implied interest rate gap of up to 600 basis points [2][10]. Group 2: Asset Pricing Changes - The traditional macro anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of U.S. stocks from economic fundamentals, as evidenced by the S&P 500 reaching new highs despite declining job openings [3]. - Gold has completely ignored the pressures of high real interest rates, showing an independent trend that diverges from TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) [6]. - Copper's price movements are no longer closely tied to traditional inflation logic, indicating a broader shift in asset pricing dynamics [7]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The deviation of U.S. stocks and interest rates from traditional models is significant, with a divergence of approximately 140%-170% [11]. - Gold exhibits the most extreme "decoupling" characteristics, with a deviation exceeding 400% [13]. - Copper shows a relatively moderate deviation of about 44% [16]. Group 4: Future Pathways - The implied fiscal risk premium will not disappear but will shift between different assets, with three potential macro pathways outlined: a rational return of U.S. stocks, a dual consistency between stocks and gold, and a mutual understanding between stocks and bonds [19][21]. - A mild recovery is likely in the short term, with the market remaining in a "golden coordinate system" illusion, while inflation expectations are suppressed [21]. - If inflation becomes uncontrollable due to political pressures, fiscal risks will become more apparent, leading to rising interest rates and a potential decline in risk assets [22].