日元三次加息有规律，美联储政策成关键，老行情里藏着应对逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hikes in Japan have significantly impacted global financial markets, with historical precedents suggesting potential volatility and recovery patterns in response to these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Rate Hikes - The analysis reviews three past interest rate hikes in Japan from 2024 to early 2025, indicating that each hike was closely tied to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to rapid market recoveries [3]. - On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates from -0.1% to a range of 0 to 0.1%, initially causing a stable Nasdaq index, which later experienced a decline but eventually reached new highs [3]. - The most significant hike occurred on July 31, 2024, raising rates to 0.25%, resulting in a more than 12% drop in the Nikkei index and nearly 20% cumulative decline, although both indices recovered quickly [5]. Group 2: Current Market Reactions - On December 1, 2025, the Bank of Japan's hawkish comments about ending ultra-loose monetary policy led to a 2% drop in the Nikkei 225 index and a subsequent decline in U.S. markets [6]. - By December, the probability of a rate hike had risen to 60%, with expectations exceeding 90% by the end of January [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The expectation of rate hikes is supported by rising domestic wages and corporate willingness to increase salaries, alongside inflation nearing the 2% target, indicating that the current monetary easing cannot be sustained [8]. Group 4: Impact on Global Markets - The prolonged low-interest rates in Japan have turned the yen into a shadow currency, facilitating significant carry trades that have funded high-risk assets globally [10]. - As of November 30, 2025, many international institutions borrowed low-interest yen to invest in U.S. and European markets, with some adopting aggressive strategies involving leverage in high-volatility tech stocks [12]. Group 5: Asset Class Vulnerabilities - In the event of a rate hike, technology and growth assets are expected to be the most affected, as yen carry trades are a crucial source of liquidity for U.S. markets, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [15]. - Value-oriented assets are likely to experience less decline due to lower leverage and valuation, making them more resilient compared to high-valuation tech stocks [14].