日元加息，全球资产即将巨震！股市，黄金等都会被冲击...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is set to initiate a historic interest rate hike in December, which is expected to have a significant impact on global capital markets, comparable to a nuclear bomb in the investment landscape [1]. Group 1: Impact on Global Markets - The immediate effects will be felt in the US dollar, US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, all of which are dollar-denominated assets [1]. - Changes in the dollar and dollar-denominated assets will transmit to other countries' investment markets, including China's RMB and RMB-denominated stocks [1]. - The current yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has reached 1.946%, the highest since August 2007, marking a significant increase from -0.28% six years ago, a rise of 224 basis points [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Comparisons - Japan's 10-year government bond yield is now higher than China's, which stands at 1.8%, indicating a significant shift in the interest rate landscape [6]. - This inversion of rates suggests that Japan, once known for its low rates, is now in a position where China has become the country with the lowest interest rates globally [6][8]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Implications - Japan's national debt, which is 250% of its GDP, poses a risk as the country moves to normalize interest rates, potentially leading to severe economic consequences [8]. - The scale of Japan's debt is comparable to major global asset bubbles, making it a significant player in global finance [7]. Group 4: Global Capital Flow Dynamics - The anticipated interest rate hike may trigger a massive sell-off of US stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and gold as global investors rush to repay debts incurred through yen carry trades [8][9]. - The recent fluctuations in the US stock market and other assets can be attributed to the impending changes in Japan's monetary policy [8]. Group 5: Currency Valuation Effects - The expected appreciation of the yen due to the interest rate hike will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which in turn will affect other currencies, including the RMB [9][13]. - The shift in capital flows may lead to a reevaluation of asset pricing globally, particularly for dollar-denominated assets [13]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The interest rate hike is not expected to be a one-time event but rather the beginning of a new cycle of rate increases in Japan, which will increasingly influence global markets [17]. - The transition from Japan's low-rate environment to a higher rate landscape may create opportunities for RMB to replace yen in carry trades [20].