12月5日比特币（BTC）与以太坊（ETH）合约技术面深度分析与交易策略

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit a volatile pattern, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) lacking a clear directional trend, indicating a phase of range correction and potential downward risks [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis - BTC has shown signs of fatigue with a "consecutive bullish candles followed by a single bearish candle" pattern, indicating weakened bullish momentum after a rebound from approximately 89,000 to above 94,000 [1]. - The current price range for BTC is between 90,000 and 95,000, and the overall trend remains within a correction phase, awaiting clearer directional signals [1]. - The daily MACD indicator shows a golden cross, suggesting that bullish momentum is not entirely dissipated, but a failure to break through the 94,300 resistance could hinder further upward movement [2]. Group 2: Short-Term BTC Outlook - On the hourly chart, BTC is experiencing a high-level consolidation, but market sentiment has turned cautious, with prices facing resistance around the 92,000-93,000 range [3]. - The hourly MACD has formed a death cross, indicating a short-term bearish signal and suggesting a potential downward trend [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy for BTC - A light short position is recommended when the price rebounds to the 92,500 area, targeting the first support level at 90,300, with further observation of the 90,000 integer support if breached [4]. Group 4: Ethereum (ETH) Analysis - ETH's price movement is closely linked to BTC, also forming a "consecutive bullish candles followed by a single bearish candle" structure, reflecting weakened bullish momentum and increased bearish pressure [5]. - The current price range for ETH is between 3,000 and 3,200, constrained by significant resistance at the upper Bollinger Band around 3,250, making effective breakthroughs unlikely in the short term [5]. - The daily MACD for ETH indicates a golden cross, suggesting limited downside momentum, but the overall trend remains under pressure [5]. Group 5: Short-Term ETH Outlook - The hourly chart for ETH shows a similar pattern of high-level consolidation, with market fatigue evident as prices decline and form a downward arrangement [6]. - The hourly MACD has also formed a death cross, confirming a short-term bearish trend, with potential further declines unless positive news emerges [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategy for ETH - A short position is advised in the 3,180-3,230 range, coinciding with the upper boundary of the daily consolidation zone and short-term moving averages [6]. - Close attention should be paid to BTC's movements and market sentiment following U.S. stock market openings, as these factors could influence ETH's price [6]. Group 7: Market Overview and Strategy - The cryptocurrency market remains in a range adjustment cycle, with BTC and ETH both operating within their respective ranges, necessitating further macro or technical signals for directional clarity [7]. - Key macro factors include expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy, changes in U.S. Treasury yields, and stock market performance, which directly affect capital flows [7]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, such as non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation indicators, could trigger significant market volatility [7].