美联储“最青睐”的通胀数据不及预期！12月降息“最后一块拼图”就位？

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.2% month-on-month in September, matching August's data and meeting market expectations. Year-on-year growth unexpectedly fell to 2.8%, the lowest in three months, while the market had anticipated a continuous 2.9% increase [2][5]. - The report on inflation was delayed due to a government shutdown, which paused all data collection and economic reporting during that period. The next release date for the PCE data has not yet been rescheduled [5]. - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down before the longest government shutdown in history began on October 1. Although recent data indicated strong sales performance during "Black Friday," consumer anxiety regarding the job market is rising, with spending primarily driven by wealthier households [6]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve officials consider the PCE price index as a primary tool for measuring inflation. They generally view core data as a superior indicator for assessing long-term inflation trends, despite also referencing overall data [5]. - A separate report indicated that consumer confidence rose for the first time in five months in early December, reflecting improved inflation expectations and a more optimistic outlook on personal financial situations [6].