欧洲紧锣密鼓，普京备好应对：俄欧冲突风险几何？

Core Viewpoint - The rumors of "Putin is ready to fight Europe" are misinterpretations, as Russia is not seeking conflict but is prepared for worst-case scenarios in response to European provocations [2][5] Group 1: Russia's Position - Putin emphasized on December 2 that Russia has no intention of going to war with Europe, but is prepared if Europe decides to act aggressively [2] - Russia's preparations are defensive rather than offensive, focusing on securing its borders and preventing incursions from Ukraine [3] - The Russian military has established a three-tier security buffer along its borders and has called up 160,000 troops for normal defense rotations, not for active conflict [3] Group 2: European Actions - The EU has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting the natural gas sector with 69 new measures [3] - NATO has initiated the "Eastern Sentinel" operation to strengthen defense in Eastern Europe, with countries like Poland and Estonia calling for NATO intervention [3] - European leaders express that the continent is in a "preparation phase" for potential conflict with Russia, heightening tensions [3] Group 3: Diplomatic Stalemate - The December 2 US-Russia talks lasted five hours but resulted in no compromise, leaving the peace process stagnant [4] - The initial 28-point peace plan proposed by the US was significantly altered by Europe, leading to further disagreements [4] - Ukraine's government insists on being part of any resolution, complicating the diplomatic landscape [4] Group 4: Security Dilemma - The ongoing military preparations by both sides are creating a "security dilemma," where defensive actions are perceived as offensive threats [5] - The situation is precarious, with rising risks of misjudgment and potential escalation into conflict [5] - The resolution of this standoff depends on the willingness of all parties to abandon confrontational mindsets and return to political negotiations [5]