Why AMD Stock Could Plunge Despite Strong Fundamentals

Core Viewpoint - AMD's stock performance highlights investor concerns regarding potential overvaluation, with historical volatility raising questions about future declines despite recent growth driven by AI demand and data center expansion [2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Historical Volatility - AMD has experienced significant stock pullbacks, dropping more than 30% on 14 occasions in recent years, erasing billions in market value [2] - The stock fell over 83% during the Dot-Com crash and nearly 92% during the Global Financial Crisis, with a 65% decline during the inflation spike in 2022 [4] - Smaller selloffs in 2018 and during the Covid crisis resulted in decreases of about 49% and 34%, respectively, indicating vulnerability to major market downturns [4] Group 2: Current Challenges and Risks - Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions are hindering AMD's revenue streams, while competition from NVIDIA and supply chain volatility pose risks to market confidence [2][9] - The introduction of NVIDIA's Blackwell series and custom AI ASICs from hyperscalers like Google could limit AMD's market share growth despite recent export approvals [9] - Intel's aggressive roadmap and ARM's ambitions in the CPU market threaten AMD's expansion in both client and server segments [9] Group 3: Financial Metrics - AMD reported a revenue growth of 31.8% over the last twelve months and an average growth of 12.9% over the past three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 17.0% and an operating margin of 9.4% for the last twelve months [10] - AMD's stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 79.6, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings [10]