美联储关注的9月核心PCE通胀2.8%大体符合预期，实际个人支出停滞

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the September PCE inflation data aligns with market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][11] - The September PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.8%, slightly up from 2.7% in August [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, consistent with Bloomberg's and Dow Jones' forecasts [3] Group 2 - Consumer spending in September showed stagnation, indicating financial strain on Americans prior to the government shutdown, with a notable decline in goods spending [1][9] - Personal income rose by 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations, while real disposable income has remained nearly flat for two consecutive months [9] - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices by 0.5%, the largest monthly rise this year, reflecting the ongoing impact of tariff policies [5] Group 3 - The SuperCore PCE, which focuses on financial services and accommodation, saw a slight decline to 3.25%, indicating stagnation in these sectors [6] - The report suggests that consumer anxiety is affecting spending patterns, with a shift towards discount retailers like Dollar General and Five Below, while some brands like Victoria's Secret and Gap still show resilience [10][11] - Market reactions to the inflation data included a rise in major stock indices and a slight increase in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor expectations of a rate cut [12]