楼市基调确立：2026年全面遏制唱衰，市场信号明朗化

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is expected to show a stable and positive development trend in 2026, driven by collaborative efforts and clear policy signals established in 2025 [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - The core principles for the 2026 real estate market are "risk prevention, expectation stabilization, and transformation promotion," as outlined in key documents released at the end of 2025 [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in the real estate sector, marking a shift from scale expansion to quality improvement and risk control [1] - Six major tasks have been identified, including optimizing housing supply and addressing risks in the real estate sector, with a focus on establishing a new development model [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) plans to gradually shift from pre-sale to actual sales of properties, with current sales projects in first-tier cities reaching 35% [2] - A unified reduction of land value-added tax by 0.5 percentage points aims to stimulate the second-hand housing market [2] - Approximately 200 provinces and cities have introduced over 470 policies to optimize the housing market, with many cities lifting previous restrictions [2] Group 3: Credit and Financial Support - The average interest rate for first-time home loans has dropped to around 3.5%, with some cities offering additional reductions for first-time buyers [3] - Local governments are providing substantial financial subsidies, with some cities offering up to 20% of the housing price as a subsidy [3] - Policies have been implemented to lower the threshold for home purchases, including adjustments to the recognition of housing units [4] Group 4: Supply-Side Reforms - The promotion of actual sales and the revitalization of existing assets are key reforms aimed at enhancing market resilience [4] - The MOHURD plans to expand the pilot program for actual sales, requiring new properties to complete construction before being sold [4] - The regulatory framework for pre-sale funds has been tightened to ensure project funding is used appropriately, reducing the risk of unfinished projects [4] Group 5: Quality Improvement and Market Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes measures to enhance housing quality, with new standards for residential projects aimed at improving living conditions [8] - Local governments are actively managing public sentiment and combating misinformation to stabilize market expectations [9] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to address current market challenges while promoting long-term healthy development in the real estate sector [9]