罗马尼亚9月宏观经济信心指数停滞，经济衰退风险仍未消退

Group 1 - The macroeconomic confidence index in Romania showed a slight increase of 0.3 points in September 2025, indicating a potential slowdown or recession in economic activity [1] - The expectation index rose by 2.8% to 37.0%, suggesting some analysts are slightly more optimistic about the economic outlook for the next year [1] - The current situation index fell by 4.8% to 38.6%, reflecting a continued decline in confidence regarding the current economic environment [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect the inflation rate to rise to 7.18% over the next 12 months (until September 2026), with 63% of respondents believing inflation will be lower than current levels, indicating a stabilization in price expectations [1] - In terms of currency, 88% of respondents anticipate the Romanian Leu will continue to depreciate over the next year, with average expected exchange rates of 1 Euro to 5.1216 Leu in the next 6 months and 1 Euro to 5.1841 Leu in the next 12 months [2] - Regarding credit rating outlook, 83% of analysts believe Romania will maintain its investment-grade rating over the next 12 months, with only a few expecting a downgrade to "non-investment grade" [2]