Trump Could Approve H200 Exports to China. Does That Make Nvidia Stock a Buy Here?

Core Insights - Nvidia is a leader in accelerated computing and AI, known for its pioneering GPU technology that has transformed gaming, data centers, and AI applications [1] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $4.4 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies globally, driven by its AI infrastructure dominance and innovation in chip design [1] Market Dynamics - A favorable ruling regarding Nvidia's ability to export high-end H200 chips to China could enhance its near-term growth prospects, although it may also bring regulatory scrutiny [2][3] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that the decision on chip exports is in the hands of President Trump, who is considering national security implications [3] Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a revenue of $57 billion for Q3 of fiscal 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase and a 22% rise from the previous quarter [11] - The data-center business generated $51.2 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year, highlighting strong demand for AI-ready GPUs [12] - Non-GAAP gross margins were approximately 73.6%, with non-GAAP EPS at $1.30, reflecting a 60% year-over-year increase [12] Future Outlook - Management anticipates around $65 billion in revenue for Q4 of fiscal 2026, indicating confidence in ongoing demand for AI chips despite potential macroeconomic challenges [13] - Analysts project EPS to increase by 50% year-over-year to $4.39 in fiscal 2026, followed by a further 53% growth to $6.73 in fiscal 2027 [13] Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock has gained 34% year-to-date and delivered a 28% total return over the past 52 weeks [5] - The stock reached a 52-week high of $212.19 on October 29 but is currently down 15% from that peak [7] - The company has a pronounced premium valuation, trading at 41 times forward earnings compared to industry peers [10] Analyst Sentiment - Bernstein and Raymond James reaffirmed their positive ratings on Nvidia, with price targets of $275 and $272 respectively, citing strong fundamentals and demand for its products [14][15] - Wall Street shows a consensus "Strong Buy" rating for Nvidia, with 44 out of 48 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" [16]