“人工智能+气象” 让天气“变幻可测”（探一线）

Core Viewpoint - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with meteorological services is transforming weather forecasting, making it more accurate and efficient, thereby supporting high-quality economic and social development [1][6]. Group 1: AI Applications in Meteorology - The "Fengshun" system, developed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in collaboration with Fudan University, has shown strong predictive capabilities, particularly in forecasting the timing of the South China Sea summer storm [2]. - The "Fenghe" AI meteorological service system, launched by CMA, serves as an intelligent interface connecting vast meteorological data with users, applicable in disaster warning, transportation, and tourism [2]. - The "Fenglei" model, developed by the National Meteorological Center and Tsinghua University, provides high-resolution forecasts for severe convective weather, achieving a 25% improvement in prediction quality compared to traditional methods [3][4]. Group 2: Advancements in Forecasting Models - The "Fengqing" model offers global forecasting capabilities exceeding 10.5 days, with precision in extreme weather predictions matching international standards [6]. - The "Fengshun" model can deliver 60-day forecasts with 100 ensemble members, demonstrating advanced performance in predicting key climate modes and extreme weather [5]. - The AI "Fengyu" model focuses on space weather forecasting, contributing to satellite communication, spacecraft orbit management, and aviation safety [3]. Group 3: Transition in Meteorological Services - Meteorological services are shifting from a "user searches for information" model to an "information finds the user" model, enhancing the speed and accuracy of weather alerts [6]. - AI models like "Fenglei" can predict convective system evolution within minutes, showcasing advantages in forecasting localized extreme weather [4]. Group 4: Integration and Collaboration - AI tools are designed to complement existing technologies rather than replace meteorologists, emphasizing the need for a collaborative forecasting system that integrates human judgment with AI and numerical models [7]. - The CMA's "MAZU" early warning system has been implemented in 35 countries, demonstrating China's contribution to global disaster prevention and mitigation [7]. Group 5: Regulatory Framework - The CMA and the National Cyberspace Administration of China have issued guidelines to enhance the integration of AI in meteorological monitoring and forecasting, aiming to mitigate potential risks associated with AI applications [8].