2026年楼市迎第四次拐点？住建部定调好房子，买房走向清晰了

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is approaching its fourth turning point, characterized by a shift from quantity to quality, where "good houses" will become the market's hard currency, fundamentally changing the logic of home buying [1][11]. Group 1: New Development Model - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has defined a "new development model" focusing on quality over quantity, introducing the concept of "good houses" with six essential standards: no mold, no blockage, no leaks, no noise, no cracks, and no odors [2][3]. - The new regulations mandate that all new residential buildings must have a minimum ceiling height of 3 meters, elevators for buildings with four or more floors, and significantly improved sound insulation standards [3]. Group 2: Renovation of Old Communities - The "good house" policy also applies to the renovation of old communities, with over 240,000 old neighborhoods already upgraded, benefiting approximately 110 million residents [5]. - The renovation aims to meet the "good house" standards, including adding elevators, upgrading plumbing, enhancing sound insulation, and improving facilities, which will help stabilize the new housing market by reducing demand for new homes [5]. Group 3: Market Predictions for 2026 - Professional institutions predict that the worst period for the real estate market may be over, with a forecasted sales area of approximately 900 to 950 million square meters in 2026, a slight decrease from 2024 but indicating market stabilization [6]. - The market will likely see structural differentiation, with resilient demand in cities with strong industrial support and population inflow, while cities facing resource depletion and population outflow will struggle despite potential stimulus policies [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Buyers are advised to prioritize quality when purchasing homes, ensuring compliance with the "six standards" and specific regulations, as these factors will significantly impact property value retention and appreciation [9][10]. - It is recommended to focus on cities and districts with robust industries and population growth, such as first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities, while exercising caution in third and fourth-tier cities, especially those with declining resources [9][10]. Group 5: Conclusion - The upcoming turning point in the real estate market represents a "quality revolution," where the focus will shift from merely buying properties to ensuring they meet high-quality standards [11][12]. - The future market will emphasize that "good houses" will prevail, with both new constructions and renovations aimed at enhancing comfort, livability, and safety [12].