四万多吨铜搬去美国，国际铜商摩科瑞亮出底牌，就是要逼空铜

Core Viewpoint - A Swiss trading company, Mercuria, executed a significant copper withdrawal from LME warehouses in Asia, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on price differentials and potential tariff implications in the U.S. market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mercuria's withdrawal of over 40,000 tons of copper on December 2, valued at approximately $460 million, led to a surge in LME warehouse copper withdrawal requests, reaching the highest single-day increase since 2013 [1]. - The U.S. market is experiencing heightened demand for copper, driven by policy expectations and potential tariffs, prompting traders to rush shipments to the U.S. before any new tariffs are implemented [3][5]. - The current market conditions have resulted in a significant price disparity, with Comex copper futures trading over $1,400 per ton higher than LME prices, creating what Mercuria's executives describe as an optimal arbitrage opportunity [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Effects - The movement of copper to the U.S. has caused a severe imbalance in global inventory distribution, with U.S. warehouses overflowing while LME inventories are rapidly depleting; Mercuria's withdrawal accounted for 35% of LME's total inventory at that time [6]. - The drastic reduction in LME inventory has led to a sharp increase in spot prices, with the premium for immediate delivery copper rising to $88 per ton by early December, a reversal from the previous month when futures prices were higher [8]. - The upcoming LME contract settlement date on December 17 raises concerns for short sellers who may struggle to fulfill delivery obligations due to low inventory levels, potentially triggering a "short squeeze" that could further elevate prices [8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Global copper supply is under pressure, with significant production disruptions reported from major mines, including a projected reduction of 200,000 tons from Indonesia's Grasberg mine due to a landslide [11]. - Chilean copper mines are also facing operational issues, leading to lowered production targets, highlighting the fragility of the copper supply chain [11]. - The increasing demand for copper from sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers is expected to sustain long-term growth in copper consumption, further complicating supply dynamics [11]. Group 4: Mercuria's Strategic Positioning - Mercuria has transitioned from a traditional oil trading giant to a significant player in the metals trading sector, employing a "light asset" model that leverages financial instruments to secure upstream supply agreements [13]. - The recent copper withdrawal exemplifies Mercuria's ability to influence market dynamics and pricing structures, showcasing its growing power in the copper market [13]. - The ongoing "copper relocation" led by trading giants like Mercuria is reshaping global resource flows, reflecting broader concerns over resource security amid geopolitical uncertainties [13].