存储猛涨的“冰与火”：AI服务器高增 消费电子承压

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by strong demand from AI applications, leading to a structural shift in the market dynamics [1][5][10]. Price Increases - SK Hynix announced a contract price increase of up to 30% for DRAM and NAND in Q4 [1]. - SanDisk raised NAND flash contract prices by approximately 50%, marking the largest single price increase in this round [1]. - The price of LPDDR4 is expected to rise significantly due to supply shortages, with projections indicating that its market share will drop to 26% by 2026, while LPDDR5 will increase to 73% [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The surge in storage prices is attributed to the booming demand for AI servers, which has led manufacturers to shift production capacity towards high-end products like HBM and DDR5, resulting in a shortage of traditional storage chips [1][5][6]. - The demand for DRAM in AI servers is eight times that of regular servers, and the demand for NAND is three times higher, further straining supply [5]. Impact on Consumer Electronics - The ongoing price increases are expected to affect consumer electronics, with smartphone prices likely to rise as manufacturers adjust to increased component costs [1][5]. - Retail prices for smartphones and laptops are already being adjusted in response to rising storage costs, with expected declines in shipment growth for these devices in 2026 [7][9]. Future Projections - By 2026, the DRAM market is projected to grow by 20% in supply volume, with revenue reaching $300.6 billion, an 85% increase year-over-year [9]. - NAND Flash market supply is expected to grow by 21%, with revenue reaching $110.5 billion, a 58% increase [9]. - Capital expenditures for major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are anticipated to increase significantly, with growth rates of 17%, 25%, and 40% respectively by 2026 [10][11]. Supply Chain Challenges - New production capacities being built by major manufacturers will have limited impact on supply in 2026, leading to continued tightness in the market [11]. - Smaller manufacturers may face increased pressure and need to adopt flexible strategies to secure storage components [11].