The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is transitioning from a cyclical business model to a disciplined self-help and deleveraging strategy, with significant divestitures and a focus on improving its balance sheet [2][5]. Financial Performance - As of December 2nd, Goodyear's share price was $8.72, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 5.12 and 10.98 respectively [1]. - The company executed divestitures in 2025, generating approximately $2.2 billion, which has been directed towards debt reduction [2]. - On a pro-forma basis, debt has decreased by approximately $1.5 billion year-over-year, with strong free cash flow anticipated in Q4 [5]. Operational Improvements - Goodyear's Forward program is on track to achieve $1.5 billion in annualized run-rate savings by the end of 2025 [3]. - Despite weak Q3 headline numbers due to non-cash charges, underlying operations showed sequential improvement in Segment Operating Income [3]. - The company is prioritizing the shedding of low-multiple, non-core assets while focusing on high-margin core operations, with around 1,000 new SKUs being introduced [4]. Market Positioning - Goodyear's global footprint is increasingly oriented towards the higher-margin replacement market, supported by strong price/mix dynamics and OEM partnerships [4]. - The company's retail and service network, consisting of 800 sites, presents potential upside through sale-leasebacks or carve-outs [4]. Future Outlook - The turnaround is progressing effectively, with visible execution in receipts and savings, setting the stage for a potential re-rating as leverage normalizes and cash generation accelerates [5]. - Previous bullish theses on Goodyear highlighted the need for stronger execution, and while the stock has depreciated approximately 10.92% since then, the fundamentals remain stable [6].