绿色工业革命带动产业趋势性投资机遇

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities believes that by 2025, major global economies will enter a phase of substantial policy adjustments and collisions, increasing the risk of global supply chain disruptions, prioritizing "security" over "cost" and continuing a trend of weak global economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the current commodity supercycle is not yet halfway through, differing from previous cycles driven by infrastructure and real estate, as it must consider the backdrop of "great power competition," which will extend the cycle [1] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the dynamics of the global economy will be influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The green industrial revolution and the era of electricity consumption are creating significant investment opportunities across various industries, including electric vehicles, energy storage, solid-state technology, humanoid robots, and AI [1] - Metals are identified as the core carriers of energy transition and industrial transformation, entering a golden cycle of demand reconstruction and value reassessment [1] Group 3: Metal Demand and Supply - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption and strategic autonomy, while long-term supply shortages at the mining level are anticipated [1] - The report highlights that a weaker dollar will lead to rising commodity prices and frequent disruptions in metal supply, maintaining a bullish outlook on the metal market [1] - Key areas of focus include de-dollarization, the "anti-involution" process, and supply chain reconstruction [1]