美联储决议前夕，美国市场“超级平静”

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an unusual calmness with low volatility indicators, such as the VIX and MOVE indices, near their yearly lows, despite recent fears and fluctuations in AI stocks and credit markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is hovering near its lowest point of the year, while the MOVE index has reached its lowest level since early 2021, indicating a significant drop in fear among investors [1]. - Just weeks ago, the market was filled with panic, particularly around AI stocks, which saw a rapid rise and subsequent fall, leading to increased volatility in stock and credit markets [2]. - Investors are currently betting on the continuation of this calm state, with U.S. stock funds recording inflows for 12 consecutive weeks [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Confidence - Stable economic data is a key reason for the current market calm, with the Fed's preferred inflation measure showing a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annualized increase slightly below 3%, indicating persistent but stable inflation pressures [3]. - Despite signs of weakness in the labor market, such as the largest layoffs since early 2023 reported by ADP, confidence in economic resilience is supporting the low volatility environment [3][4]. - The potential for increased layoffs could change the current sentiment, as rising unemployment may reflect greater recession risks that have not yet been priced in [4].