Ge Long Hui·2025-12-06 03:51Group 1: Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce internet technology group that restructured its organization in June, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce business unit, and in August, it adjusted its business structure into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others, focusing on "E-commerce, Cloud + AI" as its core business, enhancing organizational concentration and cohesion [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with Alibaba entering the market in May through food delivery services. User activity metrics show a year-on-year increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) from May to October, with growth rates of +3%, +7%, +17%, +19%, +12%, and +9% respectively [1] - Order volume peaked at 120 million in July, with market share for Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me rising significantly from 29.4% in Q4 2024 to 42.8% in Q3 2025 [1] - Delivery capability has seen over 240% growth in the number of delivery personnel from April to August 2025 [1] - User Experience (UE) investments are at their highest in FY26Q2, with losses halved from peak levels, and improvements expected as scale and efficiency increase [1] Group 3: AI Strategy - Alibaba Cloud is recognized as a "full-stack AI company," pursuing top-tier self-research capabilities in AI chips, cloud computing platforms, and foundational large model capabilities. It operates in 29 public cloud regions and 92 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 edge nodes [2] - Annual capital expenditures exceed 100 billion yuan, with the Qwen series large models significantly upgraded to Qwen3-Max, enhancing performance and creating a closed-loop with applications like Qwen APP, Quark, Taobao, and DingTalk [2] - The latest PPU chip technology from Alibaba's T-head is at the forefront domestically [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The traditional shelf e-commerce advantage is expected to stabilize market share, while cloud business driven by AI shows significant future growth potential. Adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are projected at 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 times [2] - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is assigned an 11 times earnings valuation (EBITDA basis), while the cloud business is given a 7 times price-to-sales valuation, with other businesses currently not contributing to valuation. The target market capitalization is set at 3.36 trillion yuan, with a target price of 192.48 HKD, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [2]