历史性逆转，意味着什么？

Core Insights - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has significantly surpassed China's for the first time, indicating a shift in the long-term interest rate landscape between the two countries [3][4] - This development suggests that among major economies, China's long-term bond yields are now the lowest, raising concerns about its economic outlook [3][9] Group 1: Bond Yield Dynamics - Japan's 10-year bond yield has risen to nearly 2%, a significant increase from its historically low levels due to persistent inflation [4][9] - The 2% yield threshold is critical, as it reflects a market perception of economic stability and investor confidence [5][6] - The current situation indicates that Japan may be moving towards monetary policy normalization, while China faces potential economic stagnation [9] Group 2: Economic Implications - The low bond yield in China (1.9%) signals severe market expectations of economic deflation and low growth, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s [9] - Japan's bond yield surpassing China's suggests that market participants expect Japan's inflation to remain above China's, indicating a potential shift in economic dynamics [9] - The comparison of actual interest rates shows that while Japan's real interest rate is negative (-1.1%), China's remains positive (1.7%), highlighting differing economic conditions [9]