铜价破历史新高！美国资本囤铜背后的多重算计

Core Viewpoint - The copper prices have reached historical highs, driven by a combination of supply constraints and geopolitical factors, with U.S. capital significantly influencing the global copper market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange hit $11,435 per ton, while Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 RMB, marking a historical milestone [1] - The price of copper has increased by 27.5% year-on-year as of December 3, 2025, initially driven by tightening supply from mines [1] - The U.S. has accumulated over 300% more copper inventory compared to the end of last year, controlling 62% of the total inventory across major exchanges [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has become a key macroeconomic driver for the recent rise in copper prices, with an 84% probability of a rate cut by December [4][5] - The imposition of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by the U.S. has led to a significant price divergence between U.S. and London copper prices, with a price gap expanding to approximately $2,400 per ton [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Global copper supply is facing unprecedented tightness, with major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia temporarily halting operations due to landslides [7] - Chile's state-owned copper company has proposed a significant increase in annual contract premiums for refined copper, reflecting a 275% rise compared to the previous year [7] - The demand for copper is being redefined by emerging sectors such as supercomputing, AI chips, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics, with a projected 40% increase in global demand by 2040 [7] Group 4: Strategic Capital Movements - U.S. capital is creating a "self-closed loop" in the copper market, leading to a mechanism of "inventory depletion—price gap expansion—accelerated hoarding" [9] - The strategic locking of copper inventory within the U.S. is reducing market liquidity and amplifying regional shortages [9] Group 5: Global Trade Implications - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. are reshaping global copper trade dynamics, with countries like Chile and Mexico seeking to redirect their exports away from the U.S. market [11] - The rising copper prices may delay the construction of clean energy infrastructure, impacting global decarbonization efforts [11]