基金经理投资笔记 | 基于周期阶段的2026年资产优先级选择

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition in economic cycles and the implications for wealth management, emphasizing the importance of structural debt and fiscal policy over monetary policy in the context of liquidity changes expected in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [2] - The economic cycle consists of regular expansions and contractions, categorized into long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratieff, Juglar, Kuznets, and Minsky cycles [2] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is divided into three main cycles: Kondratieff, Juglar, and inventory cycles [3] Kondratieff Cycle: Technological and Energy Revolutions - The Kondratieff cycle spans approximately 60 years, focusing on technological changes and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [4] - The cycle illustrates the interplay between technological efficiency and resource consumption, leading to a demand cycle [4] Juglar Cycle: Equipment Investment - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by periodic changes in equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle [6][7] - Key characteristics of the current Juglar cycle include the transition from old to new driving forces, accelerated technological iteration, and significant industry differentiation [8][9] Inventory Cycle: Transition from Passive to Active Inventory Management - The inventory cycle consists of four stages, with the current phase indicating a shift from passive to active inventory management, influenced by internal market dynamics [10] - Recent data shows a decline in manufacturing PMI, indicating weak demand and a challenging environment for inventory management [10][11] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle focuses on real estate and debt cycles, with China still undergoing a significant adjustment in its real estate market since 2020 [13][14] - The Minsky cycle describes a pattern of credit expansion leading to financial instability, with current conditions characterized by low interest rates and a gradual rise in macro leverage [17][18] Asset Prioritization Based on Cycle Phases - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance between the Kondratieff and Juglar cycles, focusing on new productive forces while maintaining defensive positions in a low-interest environment [19] - Specific investment areas include AI computing, industrial robotics, and green energy, while avoiding high-risk assets related to the ongoing real estate adjustment [19]