180万个孤独灵魂的“寂寞生意”，能撑起Soul的IPO吗？

Core Insights - Soul, a social platform focused on connecting strangers, has submitted its IPO application for the fourth time, showcasing strong financial performance with projected revenue of 1.683 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 286 million RMB with a net profit margin of 17.0% [2][3] - User growth has been stable, with an average monthly active user count of around 28 million as of August 31, 2025, which is below the peak of over 30 million during the pandemic and lower than 29.4 million in 2022. Revenue growth has primarily come from an increase in the average revenue per user (ARPU), which rose nearly 40% from 75.3 RMB to 104.4 RMB [2][3] - The platform's user engagement is supported by Tencent, which holds a 49.9% stake in Soul, indicating strong backing from major industry players [2][3] Financial Performance - As of August 31, 2025, Soul's revenue is projected to reach 1.683 billion RMB, with a 17.8% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 286 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 17.0% [2] - The ARPU has increased from 75.3 RMB to 104.4 RMB, reflecting a growth of nearly 40% [2] - The number of paying users has seen a slight increase, with an average of 1.8 million paying users in 2023, a 9% increase from 2022 [2] User Engagement and Retention - Soul's 30-day user retention rate stands at 23%, with an average daily launch frequency of 20.1 times, outperforming several competing platforms [7] - The platform's revenue model is heavily reliant on user spending, with 58.4% of income derived from virtual gifts and items [9] - The top 10% of users account for 82.3% of total recharge amounts, indicating a concentration of spending among a small user base [12] Market Position and Strategy - Soul aims to address the emotional needs of users feeling lonely, suggesting that demand for its services may remain stable despite economic fluctuations [3] - The introduction of AI features, such as AI-assisted chatting and AI companions, aligns with current technological trends and aims to enhance user experience [14][15] - The platform's unique matching system, which includes personality tests and user attributes, differentiates it from competitors by focusing on deeper connections rather than superficial interactions [4][5] Challenges and Opportunities - Soul faces challenges related to user retention as some users transition away from online socializing due to life changes, such as entering the workforce or forming stable relationships [7] - The platform's reliance on a small percentage of high-spending users raises concerns about sustainability and the potential impact of user churn [12][13] - The integration of AI technology presents both opportunities for enhanced user engagement and challenges in maintaining the authenticity of interactions [16][17]