2026年基建融资大趋势之固收类举债模式的消亡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant changes in infrastructure financing policies in 2023, including the cessation of management library PPP, stricter controls on urban investment bonds, and a shift towards urban renewal projects as the primary means of financing infrastructure [2][3] - The solid income debt model, which relies on government guarantees rather than project revenues, is increasingly being scrutinized, leading to a decline in the issuance of special bonds and urban investment bonds [3][5] - The article emphasizes that the profitability of projects supported by special bonds is insufficient, leading to increased local government financial burdens and a lack of derived investment growth [8][10][12] Group 2 - Special bonds are defined as government-issued bonds for public welfare projects, but their effectiveness is hampered by insufficient project revenues and increased local government financial responsibilities [5][8] - The article discusses the decline in the proportion of special bonds directly used for project investment, indicating a trend towards their generalization and multifunctionality, which undermines their original purpose [14][15] - The issues surrounding special bonds include the creation of fictitious revenues, leading to hidden debts and the misallocation of funds, which complicates regulatory oversight [15][17][19] Group 3 - The management library PPP model has been terminated due to its weak profitability and inability to meet local government funding needs, resulting in a significant decline in new projects [27][32][36] - The article notes that the original intent of PPPs to enhance efficiency has been overshadowed by the need for investment control, leading to a focus on debt management rather than revenue generation [34][36] - The cessation of the management library PPP is attributed to the exhaustion of fiscal space and the inability to generate new hidden debts, rather than solely the creation of new hidden debts [40][41] Group 4 - The article identifies urban village renovation as the only viable path for infrastructure financing, emphasizing its role in increasing GDP through the conversion of rural land into industrial or commercial use [48][50] - Urban village renovation is positioned as a means to stimulate consumption by providing housing for low-income farmers and new urban residents, thereby driving economic activity [54][56] - The article concludes that the current focus on urban village renovation aligns with government policies aimed at sustainable economic growth and efficient land use [58][59]