人民币升值进入加速期：多重逻辑支撑下的资产配置新机遇

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) in the trading market indicates an accelerated appreciation trend, supported by multiple core logics as it progresses through a critical phase of its historical cycle [1]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB began its accumulation process following the reduction of US-China tariffs in May, entering an appreciation channel with a 2.8% increase against a basket of currencies and a significant 9.4% appreciation against the Japanese Yen [3]. - Despite the recent rebound of the US dollar index from 96.6 to 100.2, the RMB has remained stable, with the offshore RMB showing stronger performance and the gap with the central parity continuing to narrow, signaling a potential acceleration in appreciation [3]. Group 2: Internal Support Factors - From April 2022 to June 2023, the RMB's real effective exchange rate has declined by 19%, and the nominal effective exchange rate has decreased by 7.7%, while China's export share and trade surplus have been rising, indicating a strong demand for valuation recovery [4]. - Since the second quarter, there has been an expansion in the surplus of bank customer foreign exchange settlements, with continuous inflows of northbound capital, and a significant amount of over 500 billion USD in export income remains unconverted, suggesting substantial potential for capital repatriation once exchange rate expectations stabilize [4]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - According to Goldman Sachs, a 1% appreciation of the RMB could enhance returns in the Chinese stock market by approximately 3%, particularly benefiting sectors such as materials, technology, and non-essential consumer goods in H-shares [6]. - The scale of foreign investment in Chinese government bonds has surpassed 3.2 trillion RMB, and the appreciation of the RMB will further increase the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on industries and assets that benefit from foreign capital inflows and reduced import costs, while also considering hedging strategies for export companies to mitigate exchange rate risks [6].