Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF experienced a significant drop of 1.32% on Thursday, reaching a new low since the adjustment began, and has declined 5.86% year-to-date with a maximum drawdown of 8.2% [1][2] - Compared to previous market corrections, the current adjustment is less severe than the maximum drawdowns of 16.75% in 2017 and 13.64% in 2013, indicating a relatively milder market reaction [2] - The volatility of the 30-year Treasury ETF reflects the behavior of risk-seeking funds, which were actively buying during the downturn from July to September and continued to flow into the market during the October rebound [4] Group 2 - Starting from November 20, there has been a continuous outflow of funds, leading to a rapid decline in the bond market, which is perceived differently by large investors compared to previous downturns [5] - The decline in the bond market is attributed to several factors, including insufficient monetary policy easing as indicated by the central bank's net bond purchases of only 50 billion yuan in November, which fell short of market expectations [7] - Concerns over liquidity have increased due to the central bank's operations, including a net withdrawal of 1,756 billion yuan on the same day, alongside upcoming 1 trillion yuan reverse repos maturing in December [7] Group 3 - Market sentiment has been impacted by credit risk events, notably related to Vanke bonds, which have affected investor confidence [8] - The yield curve has been adjusting as expectations for economic recovery have shifted, leading to a gradual restoration of the yield spread between long-term and short-term bonds since July [8] - Institutional selling has been observed, with the 30-year Treasury ETF experiencing net redemptions, attributed to various factors such as fund redemptions and regulatory constraints on banks [10] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, traditional bond funds have shown a maximum drawdown of no more than 3% over the past decade, making them a more suitable option compared to the high volatility of the 30-year Treasury ETF [12] - The "fixed income plus" strategy, particularly low-volatility options, is gaining traction as both stock and bond markets face challenges, with many investors opting for professional fund managers to navigate these conditions [14] - The secondary bond fund index has increased by 13.19% since 2021, with a maximum drawdown of 6.93%, indicating a favorable performance for this investment category [14]
长债暴跌！盘几只稳稳的“固收+”~
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-06 09:22