【美联储决议前夕，美国市场“超级平静”】数据显示，恐慌指数VIX和追踪债券市场预期波动率的MOVE指数均降至低位，尾部风险对冲大量平仓。但分析师警告这种平静较为脆弱：美联储内部出现政策分歧，可能出现分裂投票；鹰派降息或就业恶化都可能迅速引发新一轮波动。

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. market is experiencing an unusual calm ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with low levels of the VIX and MOVE indices indicating reduced volatility expectations [1] Group 1 - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has dropped to low levels, suggesting a lack of fear among investors [1] - The MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also decreased, indicating a similar trend in the fixed income market [1] - Analysts warn that this calmness is fragile due to internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a split vote [1] Group 2 - Potential hawkish rate cuts or deteriorating employment conditions could quickly trigger a new wave of market volatility [1]