Ge Long Hui·2025-12-06 13:10Core Insights - PetroChina's operations in the Sichuan-Chongqing area show significant potential for increasing natural gas output and downstream gas utilization, enhancing earnings resilience amid potential oil price declines [1] - The company has substantial natural gas resources in the Sichuan Basin, with total resources of 52.93 trillion m³ and proven recoverable reserves of 4.92 trillion m³, indicating a low exploration ratio of 9.3% [2] - In 2024, PetroChina's Southwest Oil & Gas Field (SWOGF) achieved a total oil and gas output of 35.79 million tonnes, with natural gas output reaching 44.8 billion m³, a 9% year-on-year increase, contributing to 47% of PetroChina's gas output growth [3] Production and Investment Plans - SWOGF aims to increase annual natural gas output to 60 billion m³ and crude oil output to 0.6 million tonnes by 2030, with an expected ROI exceeding 15% for its oil and gas projects [3] - To accommodate the rising natural gas output, SWOGF plans to invest in gas-fired power plants through joint ventures, addressing the current low gas demand for power generation compared to the US [4] Financial Projections - The company has raised its dividend per share (DPS) forecasts by 7-9% for 2025-27, anticipating a stable DPS for 2025 and maintaining a payout ratio around 55% for 2026-27 due to strong expected free cash flow [4] - The target price for PetroChina's H shares has been increased from HK$8.83 to HK$9.62, while the target price for A shares has been raised from RMB10.16 to RMB10.92, based on a narrowing A-H premium [5]