185亿资金追捧有色金属，有指数年内狂飙80%

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced an impressive 80% increase in the Shenwan first-level industry index this year, leading all sectors in the A-share market, with a notable 5.35% rise in the first week of December [1][6]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Eight thematic ETFs, including the Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF, have attracted a total of 18.5 billion yuan in investments this year, indicating strong market interest [1][6]. - The copper index has surged over 103%, reflecting a significant value reassessment driven by multiple certainties [6]. - Recent data shows a net inflow of 3.94 million yuan into the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable interest in rare earths, tungsten, and copper [7]. Sector Differentiation - The non-ferrous metals market is witnessing a divergence, with copper being the primary focus due to its essential role in new energy and AI data center construction [7][8]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are benefiting from global central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts, maintaining strong independent performance [7]. - Aluminum is also gaining recognition due to supply-side constraints and demand trends towards lightweight materials [7]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the combination of emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors, along with long-term supply constraints, will lead to better performance for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin by 2026 [8][10]. - The anticipated global shortage of refined copper is projected to be 270,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 580,000 tons by 2027, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [10]. Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors remain bullish on non-ferrous metals, with predictions for copper prices to range between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish market atmosphere, suggesting potential for cross-year trends [11]. - Caution is advised regarding investment timing, as the current high market interest may lead to overvaluation risks [11].