烧碱期货价格创上市以来新低！分析人士：短期弱势难改

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to structural oversupply, with futures prices hitting new lows since listing, and near-month contracts declining more sharply than far-month contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of December 4, the inventory of caustic soda in fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises across the country reached 504,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year surge of 79.32% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda sample enterprises was 86.0%, with a weekly output of 846,000 tons, both figures at year-high levels [1] - The demand from the alumina industry, the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, is weakening due to falling product prices and negative profit margins, leading to some companies initiating short-term maintenance and production cuts [2][3] Price Movements and Profitability - Despite the decline in caustic soda prices, the price of liquid chlorine has risen from -500 yuan/ton in September to 150 yuan/ton, which has helped offset some of the pressure from falling caustic soda prices [2] - The average profit margin for Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises is currently 241 yuan/ton, indicating a return to profitability [2] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the caustic soda market are unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, with supply pressures expected to persist until there is a significant decrease in operating rates [3][4] - The potential for new caustic soda capacity additions of approximately 1 million tons by 2025 and over 2 million tons by 2026 could maintain supply pressures [3] - A shift towards a more balanced supply-demand situation may not occur until after the 2026 Spring Festival, when seasonal maintenance could reduce supply and downstream stocking demand may be released [3][4]