全球屏息！年末最关键一周来了

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its meeting on December 11, following two previous cuts, despite missing some key data due to a government shutdown [7][8] - Key data supporting this expectation includes a slowdown in consumer spending and moderate inflation in the services sector, as indicated by the September PCE report [7] - The meeting will focus on three main points: the outcome of internal FOMC debates, Powell's ability to unify differing opinions, and the latest economic forecasts accompanying the decision [7][8] China Economic Data - China will release November import and export data on December 8, with expectations for exports to rise by approximately 3% due to overseas restocking and manufacturing recovery [9] - The CPI for November is expected to increase to 1% from 0.2%, driven by base effects, while PPI is anticipated to show a continued narrowing of its decline [9] - Financial data for November, including new RMB loans and social financing scale, will also be released, with a focus on M1 growth rate changes [9] Major Financial Events - A "super central bank week" is anticipated, with rate decisions from multiple central banks including the Federal Reserve, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and Brazil [11] - The upcoming political bureau meeting and central economic work conference in China are expected to set the tone for future economic policies, focusing on domestic demand expansion and innovation [10] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12, engaging with government officials and participating in AI-related discussions [14] Corporate Earnings Reports - Broadcom and Oracle are set to release their quarterly earnings, with Broadcom expected to benefit from increased demand for AI infrastructure, particularly from Google [20] - Oracle's performance will be scrutinized for its cloud infrastructure growth and capital expenditure management in response to large orders from clients like OpenAI [20][21] - These earnings reports are crucial for assessing the future trajectory of AI hardware supply chains and cloud service competition [21]