邱晓华：2025经济增速5%无悬念，受房地产拖累投资负增长40年首现丨和讯2025年会

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of China's economy in 2025 is expected to be satisfactory, with a target growth rate of around 5% achievable based on current development trends [1]. Economic Support Factors - Three main factors supporting the achievement of economic goals are identified: 1. Proactive macro policies, including active fiscal policy, moderately loose monetary policy, and supportive consumption and investment policies, provide strong support for economic recovery [3]. 2. Export performance has exceeded expectations, with a "dual抢效应" from enterprises and importers maintaining positive growth despite initial pressures from the US "tariff war" [3]. 3. Increased resilience in the domestic market contributes positively to economic stability [3]. Current Economic Challenges - Two prominent issues facing the economy are highlighted: 1. Persistently low price levels, with both production and consumer prices not returning to normal, which constrains investment, consumption, and corporate profitability [3]. 2. Insufficient domestic effective demand, with investment demand experiencing a negative growth for the first time in over 40 years, showing a decline of approximately 2% from January to November, primarily due to a double-digit decrease in real estate investment, which accounts for one-third of total investment [3]. Focus on Real Estate Investment - Addressing the impact of declining real estate investment will be a key issue that needs to be resolved moving forward [4].