Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Tesla, Inc. is increasingly focusing on AI-driven autonomy and robotics, with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology playing a crucial role in the development of the Optimus humanoid robot platform, which Elon Musk considers a significant product opportunity [2][4] Group 1: AI and Robotics Development - The Master Plan Part 4, unveiled in September 2025, emphasizes Tesla's shift towards AI and robotics, with projections indicating that robots could account for approximately 80% of the company's long-term value [2] - A recent order from Sanhua for linear actuators worth $685 million suggests production capacity for around 180,000 robots [2] Group 2: Production Goals and Market Potential - Tesla aims to scale robot output to several thousand units in 2025, 50,000–100,000 in 2026, and between 500,000 and 1,000,000 annually by the end of the decade, with expected unit costs ranging from $20,000 to $30,000 [3] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach $218 billion by 2030, indicating significant market potential for Tesla's Optimus robots [3] Group 3: Long-term Vision and Financial Implications - Tesla envisions becoming a $25 trillion company by 2050, with energy and labor costs approaching minimal marginal costs, highlighting an ambitious long-term vision [4] - Establishing a repeatable and cost-effective robot supply chain could diversify Tesla's income beyond vehicles, unlocking a high-margin AI-driven business with durable cash flow generation [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Stock Performance - A previous bullish thesis from April 2025 highlighted Tesla's long-term ambitions in autonomy, AI, robotics, energy, and data, despite facing near-term delivery and margin challenges [5] - Since the previous coverage, Tesla's stock price has appreciated approximately 84.37%, reinforcing the bullish outlook on the company's foundational vision in AI and robotics [5]