东吴芦哲：货币政策体系“科学稳健”不代表取向“稳健”

Core Viewpoint - The independent rise in long-term interest rates in the bond market is attributed to weakened market sentiment and changes in monetary policy expectations, rather than a direct indication of a shift towards a tighter monetary stance [3][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Movements - From November 25 to December 5, the 30-year long-term interest rate increased by 8.3 basis points (bps), while the 50-year rate rose by 11.55 bps, contrasting with a mere 1.8 bps increase in the 10-year rate and a decline in short-term rates [1]. - The spread between the 30-year and 10-year rates expanded to 41 bps during this period, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations for different maturities [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a "scientific and stable" monetary policy framework, which does not equate to a "stable" policy stance, suggesting that the market's interpretation of a shift to a more cautious approach may be premature [3][5]. - The PBOC's communication regarding monetary policy is more descriptive of the current state rather than indicative of future actions, with expectations for "cutting reserve requirements or interest rates" needing to be reassessed based on economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - The bond market's reaction to the PBOC's statements reflects a cooling of expectations for future monetary easing, as the market interprets the language used as a signal of a return to a more stable policy approach [3][4]. - The recent commentary in the Financial Times regarding liquidity management strategies has contributed to confusion in the market, as the term "shortening and lengthening" in liquidity provision does not align with past practices [6][7]. Group 4: Long-Term Rate Dynamics - The independent rise in long-term rates is influenced by various institutional behaviors, including banks and insurance companies adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of future government bond issuances [8]. - The expectation for continued expansion in fiscal spending in 2026 may exert further pressure on the banking sector's capacity to absorb new government debt, necessitating careful management of market interest rates by the PBOC [8].