从俄乌和平进程出局：欧洲为何 上不了牌桌？

Economic Factors - Europe's economic power is declining, with the Eurozone's growth rate remaining below 1% for three consecutive years, while the US maintains a growth rate above 2% [3] - The energy crisis has significantly increased living costs, with EU energy import costs rising over 40% compared to pre-Ukraine conflict levels in 2022 [3] - The share of the Euro in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 22% in 2020 to below 18% in 2025, while the US dollar remains above 58% [3] Geopolitical Missteps - Russia has reshaped regional order through the Ukraine conflict, strengthening ties with Belarus and Central Asian countries, which undermines Europe's influence in Eastern Europe [5] - Internal divisions within Europe, such as disagreements over immigration and rule of law, hinder collective action, exacerbated by the economic disparities among member states [5] - Europe's military security is heavily reliant on the US, with 70% of military equipment procurement coming from American companies, leading to a loss of strategic independence [5] Marginalization in International Affairs - Europe has been sidelined in the US-Russia geopolitical chess game, with the US providing over $120 billion in aid to Ukraine compared to Europe's less than $80 billion, highlighting internal disagreements [5] - Private negotiations between Russia and the US have excluded Europe from key discussions, indicating a shift in focus away from European involvement [5] - The risk of deindustrialization is rising, with over 15% of European manufacturing firms considering relocating production to the US or Asia due to rising energy costs [6] Lessons and Implications - The situation illustrates that economic, military, and diplomatic hard power are essential for international influence; without resilience and autonomy, proposals lack substance [8] - The economic struggles in Europe could lead to global market volatility, affecting everyday costs for citizens, emphasizing the interconnectedness of international politics and personal finances [8] - Europe's marginalization is a direct result of its declining power and strategic errors, serving as a warning for other nations about the importance of hard power in international relations [9]