对话伦敦政经特鲁博维茨：特朗普成为“跛脚鸭”的风险正在增加

Group 1 - The political landscape for President Trump is becoming increasingly complex as the 2026 midterm elections approach, with the Republican Party holding only a narrow lead in the House of Representatives [1] - Recent election results from New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City indicate that the Democratic Party is performing better than the Republican Party, reflecting rising support amid concerns over inflation and living costs [1] - Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats in midterm elections, especially when economic conditions are unfavorable, which could pose a significant challenge for the Republican Party [1] Group 2 - If the Democratic Party wins the House in the midterm elections, they are expected to hold numerous congressional hearings, compelling Trump administration officials to address contentious issues such as immigration policy and U.S. military presence in Latin America [2] - This scenario could lead to Trump being perceived as a "lame duck president," potentially resulting in intense competition within the Republican Party for his successor [2] - Trump's foreign policy is characterized by multiple competing strategic frameworks, reflecting the demands of various interest groups within his administration, which complicates the understanding of his diplomatic approach [2] Group 3 - The dialogue between Peter Trubowitz and Wang Huiyao highlighted that the Trump administration exhibits parallel and intertwined strategic approaches in foreign policy, balancing between reducing global responsibilities and engaging pragmatically with China [3] - As China's capabilities grow, the U.S. is finding it increasingly difficult to revert to a unilateral pressure strategy, emphasizing the need for cooperation and dialogue to maintain strategic stability [3]